Why We’re Backing the Diamondbacks ML

• Starting Pitcher Edge

Merrill Kelly’s @CIN splits are outstanding (2.85 ERA, 0.95 WHIP in his last 6 road starts) vs. Andrew Heaney’s struggles to miss bats (4.50 ERA, 1.45 WHIP his last 5).

• Park Factor

Great American Ball Park has trended neutral for LHP, neutralizing Heaney’s soft-contact tendency.

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Why We’re Backing the Mets ML

• David Peterson’s Road Dominance

Peterson is 4–1 with a 2.65 ERA and 7.8 K/9 over his last six away outings vs. Robbie Ray, whose strikeout rate has dipped under 5.5 K/9 this month.

• Weather & Travel

San Francisco’s coastal evening conditions (dense marine layer) suppress fly-ball carry—advantage to Peterson’s sinker/slider arsenal.

• Offensive Matchups

New York’s right-handed power hitters have a combined .810 OPS against LHP this season—Ray has given up a .780 OPS to RHB over his last 30 days.

These two plays combine a pitching matchup advantage, park/weather factors, and recent performance trends to tilt the edge toward our chosen moneylines.

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We’re siding with the A’s tonight because everything in our model and matchup analysis points toward them finding an edge over Houston:

  • Jacob Lopez at Home

    • Lopez’s last three starts at Oakland: 2.90 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 7.5 K/9. He’s locked in on his fastball-changeup combo in the Coliseum, a park that suppresses homers but amplifies weak contact.

  • Astros Second-Half Regression

    • After a scorching June, Houston hitters have cooled off in July: a .705 OPS over their last 10 games and just 3 home runs in 200 ABs. They’ve struggled to adjust to pitchers who live below the zone—exactly Lopez’s schtick.

  • A’s Under-The-Radar Momentum

    • Oakland’s quietly on a 4-1 run since the All-Star break, with clutch hitting in late innings (they’re 6-for-18 with RISP last five games). Confidence is high, especially wearing their classic green-and-gold today.

  • Weather & Ballpark Factor

    • Tonight’s forecast is muggy but not oppressive—ideal for sinker-heavy arms. The Coliseum’s dense marine air will keep any fly balls in check and amplify weak grounders to the shift.

Put it all together and the A’s checking every box: home-friendly pitcher, a cooling opponent, positive recent form, and ballpark leverage. That’s why we have them in the 3-leg teaser.